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(RichTVX.com) —

The recent weekend events can only be described as a farcical and absurd circus, reminiscent of the deceptive tactics employed during the notable events of August 1991. This time, however, the entire regime, along with its cohorts, has become a subject of ridicule, losing credibility in the process. Unfortunately, many individuals remain unaware of the true nature of these occurrences, making it necessary to provide a comprehensive analysis. On June 23-24, a series of events unfolded that demanded thorough examination. Our previous reports have indicated a growing dissatisfaction within the inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin towards Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private military company, Wagner. Complaints emerged from various quarters, including the leadership of the military bloc, law enforcement agencies, and close associates of the President. It appeared that everyone had something to reproach Prigozhin to Putin. Initially, Putin attempted to incorporate Prigozhin and Wagner as part of a system of checks and balances, hoping to restore equilibrium. However, this endeavor failed to achieve the desired balance.

Prigozhin played a crucial role in overseeing the wealth exported to Africa, which belonged to Putin, his associates, and relatives. This position proved highly advantageous to Putin and his inner circle, as Prigozhin acted as a driving force for advancing Russian interests in Africa and achieving their objectives on the frontlines. However, in recent years, the actions of the leader of PMC Wagner started to be perceived as politically oppositional and indicative of his own presidential ambitions. Prigozhin, who previously had direct contact with Putin, began bypassing intermediaries and directly addressing the President on most matters. This approach, understandably, caused resentment among Putin’s inner circle. Discontent had been brewing for some time, and over the past few months, Putin ceased direct communication with Prigozhin and relied solely on intermediaries who often distorted information. One of Prigozhin’s contacts within the Main Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff served as his intermediary to the President. With no direct access to Putin and sensing a hostile environment within his circle, Prigozhin started seeking ways to ensure his own survival months ago. The dark clouds gathering over the Wagner PMC had been apparent for a while, and Prigozhin was warned about Putin’s recent directive to “resolve the issue with the Wagner PMC and Prigozhin personally.” As a result, detailed plans were swiftly provided to Prigozhin to dismantle the rebellious faction of the PMC, and he skillfully evaded or neutralized the rather simplistic plans devised by the leadership of the military bloc.

Concurrently, Prigozhin, in collaboration with select members of the PMC Wagner’s leadership, formulated plans that laid the groundwork for a military coup and the seizure of power within Russia. Fueled by his recent nationwide tour and interactions with the public, Prigozhin developed a belief in his own popularity. His personal approval ratings, second only to Putin’s, bolstered his confidence in gaining widespread support. On the eve of June 23, Prigozhin received intelligence regarding the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff’s intention to target the rear positions of the Wagner PMC. Seizing the opportunity, Prigozhin orchestrated a staged attack on the PMC’s location, precisely one hour prior to the planned strike. This strategic move allowed for subsequent accusations against Defense Minister Shoigu and a prearranged campaign against Rostov and Moscow. It is essential to emphasize that these events unfolded in collaboration with the Main Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff. Prigozhin relied on the expected popular support for his undertaking, backed by assurances from his contacts within the Main Directorate that a significant number of Russian Armed Forces personnel would defect to his side, while maintaining a neutral stance among non-aligned factions.

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The march on Moscow aimed to achieve a triumphant outcome, anticipating a division among the elite and garnering explicit support from society. Notably, Prigozhin’s allies within the Main Directorate of the General Staff fulfilled their duties by providing support, ensuring unhindered movement of the PMC columns towards Rostov, successfully capturing the city, and thwarting the Ministry of Defense’s attempts to impede their advance to Moscow. However, Prigozhin’s expectations were proven wrong. Contrary to his hopes, there was no apparent popular support, and the military maintained a neutral stance. The procession solely composed of Wagner PMCs did not convey a sense of triumph. As morning arrived on June 24, Prigozhin assessed the situation in Rostov and realized the disheartening truth. Nonetheless, the decision was made to continue the movement towards Moscow, albeit with certain adjustments to the plans. Subsequently, when Lukashenko established contact with the PMC’s leader at the behest of Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Prigozhin was prepared to engage in negotiations. These negotiations lasted approximately two hours.

 

Prigozhin, recognizing his diminishing prospects in the event of a Moscow invasion, reluctantly agreed to “register” a part of the Wagner PMC in Belarus under Lukashenko’s guarantees of amnesty and withdrawal of claims against the rebellion participants. In exchange, Prigozhin demanded the resignations of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Promises were made to remove them from their positions and prosecute them, backed by Patrushev’s assurances with supposed consent from the president. Prigozhin convinced the Wagner PMC commanders to accept the agreement. Shoigu was briefly detained but promptly released after Putin’s intervention. Despite Putin’s disregard for Prigozhin’s guarantees, Shoigu would remain closely monitored until a final decision was made. As of 21:00 Moscow time on Sunday, June 25, the President had yet to make a decision.

Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council, played a central role in coordinating and facilitating agreements among Lukashenko, Putin, Prigozhin, and various representatives from law enforcement agencies and the military. However, despite these agreements, the power bloc leadership remains committed to dismantling the Wagner PMC’s leadership and taking individual action against specific “violent” participants in the near future. It is important to highlight that Russian President Vladimir Putin deliberately avoided taking direct responsibility for most decisions during this crisis.