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(RichTVX.com) —

Russia has experienced a profound transformation that has eroded its core attributes as a functional state. Traditional notions of territorial integrity have lost significance as boundaries have become irrelevant. The rule of law has been replaced by a complex network of covert power structures known as the deep state, which prioritizes self-interest over national welfare. In this new paradigm, “patriotism” has emerged as a valuable currency, capable of securing positions of influence and granting immunity for severe crimes. As a result, the state’s monopoly on violence has been fragmented through franchising, diminishing its control. When Russian citizens question the lack of investigations and official responses to abductions and assaults in Chechnya, they fail to recognize that the state they once knew no longer exists. Instead, a mafia-like entity has taken its position. It is unrealistic to expect this organization to engage in self-regulation or combat its own illicit activities, making any such expectations naïve.

The hybrid criminal-bureaucratic structure, once stable under Putin’s arbitration, is now in decline. Putin’s weakened position has led to successive errors, particularly his public alignment with Shoigu, which marginalized the Wagner PMC and enhanced the influence of Kadyrov, Delimkhanov, and Akhmat. While Putin’s covert interactions with Prigozhin persist, outwardly, it appears that Shoigu has gained a temporary victory and aligned with Kadyrov. This has created a landscape of mafia conflicts, internal power struggles, and increased territorial raids and robberies within a fragmented state. The potential victor in this chaotic scenario will be an opportunist with superior intellect, cunning, strength, ruthlessness, and charisma – qualities no longer embodied by Putin. Prigozhin, among the available factions, seems to hold a favorable position. Putin’s only hope for self-preservation lies in handing over power to a successor who can ensure his safety and maintain a fragile equilibrium among rival clans. However, this outcome is contingent on avoiding unforeseen catastrophic events, known as “black swans,” that could trigger the state’s disintegration.

Two days ago, a Putin look-alike met with Ella P., the chairperson of the Central Election Commission. Their discussion centered around the upcoming election campaign, including occupied territories. To prepare for such meetings, the doppelgänger is provided not only with meeting materials but also with a detailed dossier on the counterpart, filled with intriguing details. This knowledge helps the doppelgänger form an opinion and attitude towards the interlocutor, resembling that of Putin. The doppelgänger is increasingly adopting the president’s persona, striving to internalize his worldview. After studying Ella P.’s dossier, the doppelgänger was asked about notable findings and changes in his attitude towards her. He expressed surprise at her fondness for hard liquor and admitted that the dossier facilitated easier communication. It’s worth mentioning that in private, the doppelgänger treated Ella P. dismissively and mockingly, mirroring Putin’s behavior.

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The real Putin participated in a video conference with military bloc leaders despite feeling unwell. He demanded explanations for issues like the disarray in the ranks and the lack of progress in the DPR, despite promises made. Though the military leadership provided vague justifications for the arms shortage, they assured swift victories. The military leaders have grown accustomed to such outbursts and relentless demands from Putin. Despite his foul mood and profanity-laden rants lasting twenty minutes, their impact is limited. The military bloc leadership believes they are protected as long as the war continues. The example of Surovikin, who openly defied Putin last year and remains unscathed, boosts their optimism. They fear the Chekists more than any potential repression from Putin. Except for Shoigu and Gerasimov, many military leaders regret the missed chance for Prigozhin during the mutiny but hold hope for a second opportunity.

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Putin’s recent calls for a “new” Hague have been overlooked by the West, prompting the question: Why the lack of attention? The White House possesses the authority to strip Moscow of its sovereign status, paving the way for legal actions that could lead to the fragmentation of Russia. However, the West is cautiously observing Ukraine’s counteroffensive instead of expediting the dismantling of the Russian “empire” through legal means. Putin’s recent public admission that the Russian state fully funded the “Wagner” terrorist PMC raises concerns about the government’s credibility. The cost of maintaining prisoners of war from May 2022 to May 2023 reached an astounding 276 billion rubles or $4 billion, including financing mercenaries, insurance payments, and income from army provisions. These expenses exceed the Kremlin’s spending on culture by two-fold and surpass its sports budget by four times. Dmitry Kiselyov highlights the scale of the mercenary empire, revealing that a single Prigozhin company, Concord, accumulated over $25.3 billion, surpassing annual healthcare and education expenditures. These figures shed light on the preference for convict idolization over healthy living and education in Russia.

The Kremlin’s admission of creating a transnational terrorist group raises concerns about future developments. Recognizing countries as terrorism sponsors presents challenges in Europe due to the lack of a legal basis at the EU level. Although several countries and organizations have acknowledged Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, these declarations have limited legal consequences. The EU hesitates to enact the necessary legislation despite its proclaimed affinity for Russia. In the United States, European resolutions aim to pressure the White House politically. However, the US possesses a powerful tool to address state sponsorship of terrorism through official recognition, which significantly impairs a nation’s sovereignty. Yet, the US is reluctant to employ this legislative weapon against Putin’s regime, likely due to the avoidance of escalating tensions with a nuclear power. The US and Europe’s focus on Ukraine as a means to address the “Putin problem” is understandable, but there exists a more direct path to shared victory that our Western partners have yet to fully embrace or openly pursue.