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Serbia currently operates under extensive Russian hybrid influence, resulting in paralysis of the state and criminalization of state institutions. Widespread societal divisions exacerbate this situation, with education and youth engagement being particularly susceptible to Russian manipulation. This report touches on select phenomena but acknowledges the presence of organized crime groups masquerading as “football fans” as another dimension. Russia’s multifaceted engagement in Serbia reflects a comprehensive hybrid warfare strategy, a complex endeavor encompassing various components aimed at fostering a divided society that can be easily influenced and controlled. This approach bears resemblance to Russia’s tactics in Ukraine, where it employed political, economic, and military means through various individuals, groups, and organizations, even involving religious institutions. The Russian hybrid impact in Serbia can be deconstructed into five primary elements.

Russian interests align with pro-Russian political parties striving for power or influence in Serbia. Serbia holds strategic significance due to its Serbian diaspora throughout the former Yugoslavia, making it vital for Russia to maintain its foothold here to exert influence over Southeastern Europe. Serbia has been utilized as a platform for destabilizing neighboring countries, exemplified by assassination attempts on prime ministers in North Macedonia and Montenegro, and the subsequent crises generated to advance Russian interests.

The presence of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU), including units like the Wagner Group, is an integral part of Russian operations in the Balkans. There exists a coordinated network of these units, perpetuating activities that incite fear and instability, as well as exerting military influence.

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The comprehensive influence network involving Russian services, criminal organizations, and high-ranking state officials raises significant concerns, not only for Balkan security but for Europe as a whole. Russian intelligence services have previously attempted coups in Montenegro, Serbia, and North Macedonia, while indirectly contributing to instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kosovo and Metohija are also impacted by Russian influence. Understanding and monitoring these entities are crucial steps in safeguarding regional and European stability. Russian state media, along with Serbian media under Russian influence, contribute significantly to shaping narratives and spreading propaganda. This includes online portals, blogs, and social media platforms, which play pivotal roles in manipulating public opinion.

The fourth component focuses on the logistical support system that facilitates the financial, operational, and logistical needs of the other three segments. Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has introduced stringent legislation to control and penalize dissenting information, a model that is not applied in Serbia due to its non-participation in sanctions against Russia. However, concerns persist regarding the spread of propaganda through Russian media outlets.

The Serbian Orthodox Church serves as a pivotal element of Russia’s hybrid influence, constituting the fifth component. Leveraging historical ties between the two nations, Russia employs this connection to cultivate a conservative, pro-Russian narrative in Serbia, capable of shaping the nation’s foreign policy goals, such as discouraging Euro-Atlantic integration and fostering alignment with Russia, even at the expense of EU alignment.

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